Observatorio de Relaciones Internacionales

  • Mayo

  • 11
    May
    2010

    The influence of Souht Africa

    South Africa is, together with Nigeria and Sudan, the big regional power of the African continent due to his political influence, top coat and economic. We are talking about a country that has an evolution in many aspects for example; one of the most important aspects to mention is the abolishment of the Apartheid. Furthermore in one month there will be the world cup taking place in South Africa and the recently the award of Honorary Doctor was given to Nelson Mandela in our university, and also the fact, that South Africa was the only African country in the G-20. It has the biggest economic power regarding the whole African continent.

    As you can see there are a lot of things going on in South Africa right now. Often when people think about South Africa they only think of violence, criminality and poverty. Of course, those are issues South Africa has to deal with as well but in the last years South Africa is going through a great development. It is getting a very important and strong country.

    This is even more shown because nowadays other nations such as China, Russia, India and Brazil are very interested in South Africa because they see in South Africa an opportunity of sure investment, that they have the best infrastructure and system of banking compared to all other countries on the continent. Other nations start to realize as well that there is a big development taking place.

    In addition there will be many advantages next to the economy, as the abundant offer of resources, a financial system and juridical developed good, transports (international airports, the one of Johannesburg or Durban, or big marine ports in the cities of Durban, Cape Town and Port Elizabeth). Such values just mentioned above, the democracy, the human rights, the respect of the Constitutional state and the good gobernanza, the tolerance, the equality, the commitment in the struggle against the poverty and the social exclusion, the promotion of the sustainable development, and a modern infrastructure of support for a deficient distribution of goods to the principal urban centers along the whole region.

    With a GDP of 9.761 ($) for inhabitant, it represents the fourth part of the whole African continent. 92 % of the companies are registered on the stock market together with the big companies of the whole world like BMW, Acer, Alcatel and General Electric’s. Those companies have created an associated company in South Africa. Also, it is important to keep in mind that this development is not only reflected inside the country but you can also see improvements and increasing growth in a positive way between the neighboring countries and the rest of the continent. This means that if South Africa grows 1 %, his neighbors will grow 0, 4 %.

    That shows clearly that if the development of South Africa is stainable than also the neighbor countries will improve further. Nevertheless, the growth of South Africa has an impact of 0,75 % not only for the surrounded countries, but also in the whole region Sub-Saharan. This shows that South Africa has an enormous impact regarding the growth for whole Africa, like the United States of America are for the rest of world. It is vital for South Africa and the whole region around South Africa to make sure that this growth continues in the same way, according to a report of the World Bank.

    The president of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, wants to obtain benefits from the south-africanian economy and as a result to strengthen its own political stability. According to a study of the Group Steadman, specialist in Namibia, is South Africa a country with average income and with a democratic government that offers a good economic management, basic freedom and political stability. In addition South Africa has a good functioning infrastructure and rich mineral resources.

    In the past South Africa received loans in large quantities. Today, nevertheless, the population is convicted to pay debts contracted by previous governments that were accumulating enormous private fortunes. The problem for countries South Africa is that, on not having had a strong currency, when they try to pay his debts they must pay more money in his national currency than in the moment to contract the debt.

    The life expectancy in South Africa is between 53 and 60 years, major than other countries as Ethiopia, Chad or Níger. But only 13 % of the South African population lives in "first world” conditions, almost 50 % lives in conditions of developing countries. In this big group only one fourth has access to electricity and running water, only half they has access to a primary education, and more than one third of the children suffer from chronic undernourishment. And so, although the economy of South Africa is in rise, and even more with the World cup of soccer, this next summer, which will suppose an important injection of money for the country, most of the African population face a hard life with not many possibilities to improve. As Nelson Mandela said, “After climbing a big hill, one meets only that there are many more hills that to climb.” A better form does not exist to define the current socioeconomic situation in this marvelous country.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Hegemonia y Ambición Nuclear

    En un mundo donde hay tantas, amenazas como medios para realizarlas, resulta difícil quedarse atrás en cuestión de armas. El inmóvil pero latente mundo nuclear permanece como un volcán inactivo, nadie sabe con exactitud cuando entrará en erupción, tal vez nunca lo haga pero la posibilidad sigue ahí, preocupando a quienes concierne y a quienes no.

    El 8 de junio de 2005 con motivo de la clasificación de Irán para participar en la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2006, la estrella de la selección de fútbol iraní, Mehdi Mahdavikia, declaraba con orgullo: “Ahora queremos demostrarle al mundo que podemos competir con la elite”. Esta frase, trasladada al contexto político internacional, podría servir también para ilustrar el sentimiento de las autoridades iraníes con respecto a su programa nuclear. (EL PROGRAMA NUCLEAR IRANÍ Y LAS DIFICULTADES PARA VISITAR A LOS AMIGOS; Vicente Garrido Rebolledo)

    La historia nuclear de Irán comienza en 1967, cuando se puso en marcha un reactor de investigación que Estados Unidos le había otorgado a la Universidad de Teherán.
    Por aquel entonces, los norteamericanos se complacían en suministrarle tecnología nuclear a Irán, ya que después de todo era considerado un estado "amigable".

    Bajo el mandato del Sah, Irán, insistiendo en que su programa nuclear tenía un carácter pacífico, aceptó el Tratado de No Proliferación de Armas Nucleares (TNP) en 1970 lo que permitía que la OIEA inspeccionara sus instalaciones nucleares. Durante los años 70, esto bastó para que la industria nuclear buscara hacer negocios en dicho país.

    La revolución islámica de 1979 puso fin al programa nuclear de Irán, al menos en un principio. No obstante, unos años después, los ayatolas cambiaron de opinión y decidieron que la energía nuclear podría resultar útil para suministrar electricidad.

    Durante la guerra de Irán contra Irak, los iraquíes destrozaron los incompletos reactores de Bushehr, pero Irán no perdió tiempo en buscar nuevos socios para reconstruirlos. Finalmente, la elección recayó sobre los rusos, quienes, en enero de 1995, obtuvieron un contrato para completar la instalación de un reactor.

    Un mes más tarde el presidente iraní Mohammad Khatami anunció que Irán había comenzado a extraer uranio cerca de la ciudad de Yazd y estaba creando las instalaciones necesarias para desarrollar un ciclo de combustible de uranio.

    ¿Convertirse en una potencia líder regional o simplemente tener una energía enorme? Irán y el mundo han discutido este tema en los últimos años. El gobierno de Teherán y el presidente de Irán, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, anunció sus " puros deseos y objetivos" sobre el uso del poder nuclear, de forma pacífica; pero el mundo y principalmente los Estados Unidos no parecen fiarse de esta declaración. Y tienen motivos para ello.

    El que la OIEA descubriera una serie de actividades clandestinas de enriquecimiento de uranio que Teherán había estado ocultando al Organismo desde finales de los años ochenta es uno de ellos. Como también el hecho de que el valor de la mina de Saghand, en Yazd, es 5 veces inferior al actual precio mundial, y explotar una mina de uranio tan poco rentable despierta sospechas, en especial debido a que Rusia ya acordó suministrarle combustible nuclear en 1995, y más aun teniendo en cuenta las grandes reservas infla-explotadas de gas y petróleo iraníes. Esto hace absolutamente innecesarios en términos energéticos, los planes de construcción de siete centrales nucleares para el año 2025.

    En su defensa el presidente de iraní ha vinculado este nuevo paso en desarrollo con la autosuficiencia del país. También ha buscado justificarlo en términos económicos (60 millones para producir mil megavatios en lugar de los 500 que les cuesta ahora), e incluso en el contexto del calentamiento global, alegando que es una energía limpia y va a reemplazar a los combustibles fósiles. Aunque la instalación de nuevas centrifugadoras no viola en principio el Tratado de No Proliferación, la comunidad internacional se muestra preocupada por el empeño iraní de enriquecer uranio, ya que el combustible obtenido sirve tanto para producir electricidad como para fabricar bombas.

    Ante esta preocupación el secretario de Defensa de los EE.UU. Robert Gates, dijo que Irán no tendrá capacidad de producir armas nucleares hasta dentro de un año, quizás más. Esta declaración la hizo hace un año, quizás más, y hasta ahora sus estimaciones no han variado mucho.

    Israel, por su parte, no baja la guardia. Ha realizado varias pruebas para atacar a las bases iraníes si llega el momento. “Si a nuestras fuerzas se les da luz verde podrían atacar Irán en cuestión de días, incluso horas. Están haciendo preparativos a todos los niveles para esta eventualidad. El mensaje a Irán es que la amenaza no se queda sólo en palabras” un alto funcionario de defensa israelí dijo al periódico The Times.

    Frente a la reciente cumbre de no proliferación en Washington (a la que Irán no fue invitada), Ahmadinejad ha respondido con su propia conferencia de desarme este fin de semana, en la que ha responsabilizado a su archienemigo de la proliferación.

    "Estados Unidos es el único país del mundo que ha utilizado armas nucleares y amenaza con volverlo a hacer", declaró el presidente iraní durante la inauguración de la conferencia. "El uso de esas armas es la principal razón de la carrera nuclear... Quienes las poseen son los mismos que llevan a otros a proliferar".

    Tampoco faltaron peticiones a EE UU para que retire sus tropas de Oriente Próximo y Asia. Esto parece responder a la reciente advertencia de Barack Obama de que su nueva doctrina nuclear (no utilizar armas atómicas contra países que no las posean) excluye a Irán. Han tomado medidas diplomáticas embajador de Irán Mohammad Khazaee pidió al Consejo de Seguridad y a otros órganos de la ONU mostrarán una seria oposición a las políticas nucleares del presidente Obama y su amenaza contra uno de los signatarios del TNP que no posee armas nucleares.

    Las críticas sobre Irán, lanzadas por el presidente de Rusia, Dmitri Medvédev, durante su reciente visita a Nueva York sorprendieron agradablemente a la prensa occidental e israelí.

    "Irán está causando problemas, por eso es muy importante para nosotros tener muy claras las características de su programa", dijo el mandatario. "No apoyo las sanciones contra Irán, pero, es posible que sean inevitables en ciertas circunstancias"." Tras estas palabras ya no se pueden sostener las acusaciones que incriminan a Rusia de consentir las ambiciones nucleares iraníes.

    En lo referente a China, el portavoz del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores chino Ma Zhaoxu explicó a la prensa que Obama y Hu habían mantenido conversaciones "positivas y constructivas". Ma declaró en un comunicado que tanto Pekín como Washington "comparten la misma meta global en la cuestión nuclear iraní".

    En definitiva, parece ser que el volcán aún no presenta graves síntomas de erupcionar, pero su presencia sigue y seguirá preocupando a la sociedad internacional.

    Es un problema con el que en el fondo nadie se quiere enfrentar debido a sus inevitables consecuencias, ya que como dijo el afamado actor Denzel Washington en Marea Roja: “En el mundo nuclear, el verdadero enemigo es la guerra en si misma”.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Colombian Peace Process

    If we are going to talk about Colombia’s relationships with other countries, the most important country to talk about is Venezuela. While some countries are trying to find a regional unity between them, Colombia and Venezuela are still having their own war. Never in history have bilateral relations affected so much by 2 different political positions. Diplomacy between Bogota and Caracas has been hard to carry on with, but since 2009 it has been even more complicated. In 2009, Chavez froze the trade with Bogota, which caused many hard to the economy and the loss of many jobs. Chavez took this decision as an answer to Colombia’s agreement with the US. This agreement consisted of Colombia letting its military basis to the States to fight against narco traffic and guerrilla groups. Chavez saw this as a threat to the regional area and especially to Venezuela. On top of this, president Uribe gave and advertence to Colombians about the safety of travelling to Venezuela, after 20 passengers were accused of espionage in the neighbor country. The Colombian fight against drug dealing it’s seen in Venezuela as the pretext the US is using to install them in the territory.
    But the interesting part of this conflict is that the relationship is not bad with the Venezuelans but with their president Chavez and his way of governance and is hate for North Americans. What is clear is that Colombia has to find a way to come to an agreement or a solution before this regional war starts affecting more countries and even worse, the Latin American unity.
    dialogue.
    Alvaro Uribe Velez, who is the president of Colombia put his political attitudes against the main guerilla movement, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. He largely got his popularity because of his campaigns agains FARC and ELN.
    He later issued a statement saying the insurgents are indeed terrorists who fund their operations with cocaine smuggling, recruit children and plant land mines in their effort to topple a democratically elected government.
    The role of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has been a mediator between FARC and Colombian government. He states that FARC is not a terrorist group and also he supports that FARC should stop armed struggle and free all the civilian hostages.
    In 2007 September, he invited rebels to talk about the deal of hostage releases. As a result of the mediation of Chavez, the FARC delivered two of the hostages in 2008 January. After the release of the hostages, Hugo Chavez called the Colombian, US and European governments to take FARC off their terrorist groups list. This demand increased the tense of the relation between the leaders of Colombia and Venezuela again.
    In February 2008, FARC released other four hostages as a gesture for the mediation efforts of Hugo Chavez who recognize them as belligerents. After this, Colombian leader Alvaro Uribe branded FARC as a terrorist group again in his speech to thank to Hugo Chavez but he expressed that they are open to reconciliation as a positive
    The positive relationship between Hugo Chavez and FARC always causes a tense between the governments of Venezuela and Colombia. Colombian government blames Chavez of arming and financially helping to FARC and US government also supports those claims that Chavez’s refuses.
    Colombia is going through a big social conflict which affects the country itself and the countries that are around it. The biggest problems like drug trafficking, terrorism, kidnapping and terrorist groups that seek for policy objectives have increased to a point that the security and peace of the Colombian citizens are always in a risk.
    The Colombian drama is already known in most of the planet and the FARC guerrillas are one of the main actors in this drama.
    Colombia has a history of violent protest stretching from Spanish colonial times to the present day. Geographical divisions have combined with social divisions to create a nation repeatedly lacking a strong, coherent governmental power base. Political protest is always one step away from an absolute revolution, and the results are frequently bloody.
    FARC was established in 1964 after a particularly bloody period in Colombia’s history known as La Violencia (1948-1958). The violence ended in 1958 with reconciliation between key parties in the government. Meanwhile, landless rebels banded together under FARC, which was formally established as the military wing of the Colombian Communist Party. FARC has emerged to be what the State Department describes as Colombia’s "oldest, largest, most-capable, and best-equipped Marxist insurgency.
    " F.A.R.C.-E.P. (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo – Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People's Army), is a Marxist-Leninist revolutionary guerilla organization, based in Columbia. Since 1964 exists an armed conflict against the Colombian state. At the present time it is the biggest and most powerful guerilla organization in Latin America.
    Diverse countries, such as Columbia, Peru, USA, Canada and the entire EU identify the FARC as a terrorist organization, but not the surrounding states such as Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela. The FARC was established 1948 after a violent face-off between the Colombian Communist Party and the Colombian Liberal Party; called “La Violencia”.
    The certain parties created several liberal guerrilla and irregular rural forces during this war. In 1953 the military under General Gustavo Rojas seized control of the country. In 1964, a section of these guerrillas would develop into the FARC- EP, which was since 1966 a military wing of the Colombian Communist Party after government military forces attacked rural communist enclaves during the aftermath of “La Violencia”.
    The guerilla group (FARC), created through farmers for their defense and security against the military and the “great land owner”, had one entire aim which was a revolutionary land reform. Till the eighties comprised their intention only one topic: “Agricultural receivables”.
    Over the time more and more kids (easier to manipulate) than adults join the FARC. The number of members is strongly decreasing, in the nineties they had about 20.000 and in 2008 it decreased to 8.000 followers.
    By 1982, increased income from the "coca boom" allowed them to expand into an irregular army, which would then stage large scale attacks on Colombian troops. This was the reason for the new direction and the new name: FARC-EP (EP: Ejército del Pueblo; “peoples army”), which leads to an extension of the organization. More and more farmers jointed the guerilla group, they were dependent of them.
    The new aim of the FARC was to create a strong economic infrastructure and security, especially for the drug dealers. In the eighties Columbia was the biggest cocaine producer, today it increases its cultivation six times to 120.000 hectare.
    Financial support was always guaranteed from the other communist countries such as Cuba and the Soviet Union. Other possibilities to receive money are: kidnapping, drug dealing and raise of taxes. The monetary assets of the FARC-EP are estimated of 300 billions – 980 billions $. The organization are called terrorists with an unreasonably and random violence, and no respect of human rights. Countless civilian already died for no reason!
    FARC and ETA have similar ways to go against the worlds democratic but mainly the South American and Spanish government, because of their different political views and area claims. The similar way of acting against the present political values and views can make people think about the connection between them, and also that they get some political help from leaders like Hugo Chavez.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Obama nomina a Elena Kagan a la Corte Suprema de Justicia.

    El pasado lunes 10 de mayo, el presidente Obama anunció su deseo de ver a Elena Kagan como miembro de la Corte Suprema de Justicia de Estados Unidos. Si fuese ratificada por el Senado, sería la primera vez en la historia de la justicia estadounidense en la que hubiese tres mujeres en la Corte Suprema.

    Actualmente, Kagan que es considerada una “centrista moderada”, desempeña la labor de abogada del Departamento de Justicia, encargada de representar al Poder Ejecutivo ante la Corte Suprema. Anteriormente fue directora de la Escuela de Leyes de la Universidad de Harvard. A sus 50 años, sería la juez más joven del máximo tribunal de justicia.

    El nombramiento de esta mujer, de la que Obama ha dicho que es “una constructora de consenso”, con “una amplia gama de perspectivas” y que entiende que la ley “afecta las vidas de personas ordinarias”, ha despertado numerosas críticas entre las que destacan su falta de experiencia como juez, y que con su nombramiento se daría un giro conservadora la corte, ya que entraría sustituyendo al juez John Paul Stevens quien es considerado el líder del ala liberal del máximo tribunal.

    Además, como lo subraya un artículo del New York Times, Elena Kagan estuvo hace algunos años envuelta en la polémica; fue partidaria de denegar el acceso dentro de las universidades, a los reclutadores del ejército americano, por lo que fue tachada de antimilitarismo.

    A pesar de esto, no se prevé que su nombramiento corra peligro ya que sería apoyada por la mayoría conservadora del Senado.

    LINKS

    http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2010/05/11/index.php?section=mundo&article=020n1mun

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/us/politics/11court.html?scp=1&sq=Obama%20nominee%20Kagan&st=cse

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • The next president of Philippines is Benigno Aquino

    Benigno Aquino is the new president for Philippines for the next four years The Commission on Elections said Mr Aquino, had about 40% of the vote to Mr Estrada's 25% after almost every districts counted. One of his main two rivals “property magnate Manny Villar” accepted Aquino’s victory but still no sign of acceptance emerged from the side of the other candidate, Joseph Estrada. In one of his first interview the new president declared that his main aim would be to improve public healthcare , public education, relations with the neighbour countries and most of all, tackle corruption.

    Link: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1055759/1/.html

    "I will not only not steal, but I'll have the corrupt arrested," he told a news conference in his home province of Tarlac.

    About 75% of the 50 million voters went to the polling stations on Monday. The high ratio of votes are implying to the needs of people to reduce the unbearable level of corruption and improve the health, economic and educational sectors.


    According to international observers there were several problems with the new voting machines in several district but all the same the voters waited without unrest. But not everywhere. Despite the high security measures at leas 12 people died in political violence.


    Also the political campaign before the election were very bloody with more then 30 people died. Even November another 57 people died in clashes of the supporters of two political parties.


    The government hopes that the riots will stop in next few days and the new government will be able to deal with the tasks and problems of the country.

    Links:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8674109.stm

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1055759/1/.html

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Thailand: the end of crisis?

    While the crisis situation in Thailand where the opposition to power the "red shirts", support for former prime minister, calls for the departure of the current government, new tensions arise on the consequences of violent events. Two camps, the red shirts, opposition to power, and yellow shirts, support and close to the current power of the bourgeoisie and the monarchy.

    The country is on stand-by since mid March this year. Altogether there are two camps in 29 deaths and over 1,000 wounded. Opponents of the power demand the resignation of Vice-Primer Minister, Saphawasu Suthep.

    Indeed, he is accused of fueling violence. The government spokesman said that, Suthep Saphawasu would visit May 12 at the local police. The opposition feared a two-tier justice that would protect the family from power.

    The international community expects a quick resolution of the crisis. The opposition confirmed accepting early elections called for November 14, but reserved a few days to decide on the dissolution of parliament the second half of September. The budget for next year should be voting early September and cannot be changed until the following year.

    After more than 45 days of paralysis, the government is under pressure. Tourism began to be directly affected by the crisis. Travelers are canceling their trip in fear of being stuck in the country as the last crisis of 2006.

    The resolution of the conflict is close but the rehabilitation will be long and difficult

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2010/05/10/97001-20100510FILWWW00517-thailande-le-vice-pm-doit-se-rendre.php

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Nigeria has a new president

    The Vice-president Goodluck Jonathan is the new president of Nigeria. On Wednesday, 6th may 2010 his antecessor Umaru Yar’Adua died.

    Jonathan already took over all the work from the administrative office, because Yar’Adua has been very sick in the past and not able to follow his job.

    Jonathan explained that till the election in April 2011 he wants to concentrate on the reform of the election right and the fight against the corruption.

    It will be very important that for the election all votes count and will be taken into account.”

    In addition the peace process in Niger-Delta also has a high importance. There are groups fighting for a stronger participation of the profit the country gets because of they are very rich of oil and against the damage of the environment.

    Yar’Adua died at the age of 58 years. „Nigeria lost a jewel in its crown and today even the sky mourns with our nation”, said Jonathan. He announced a seven days state mourning. Looking back, the takeover of Yar’Aduas in 2007 was the first peaceful power change in the West African state. Before this there was always violence involved when somebody else got the power of Nigeria.

    In the beginning of his curatorship he set a sign by laying open his estate. But he could not either make a serious progress in the fight against the corruption.

    US-President Barack Obama appreciated Yar’Adua as a very great politician.

    Yar’Adua was born in 1951. His family was one of the most reputable and known families in whole Nigeria. He studied chemistry.

    He started his political carrier as the governor of Katsina.

    His disease caused a leader crisis for many months. The president was medicated in Germany and Saudi-Arabian, but without progress.

    Yar’Adua left behind his wife Turai and nine children.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Federal Minister for Development Dirk Niebel meets Energy Minister of Ghana

    Dirk Niebel, the Federal Minister for economical development and cooperation met the Minister for Energy of Ghana, Dr. Joe Oteng-Adjei. In the center of the discussion were the dynamic developments in Ghanas energy sector. Minister Oteng-Adjei presented the plans for the oil legislation, which among other things also encludes the establishment of a fond for building-up capital for the future.

    The Federal Minister welcomes the initative: "This is a great chance for Ghana. Now we need to make sure that the revenues out of the oil production need to release a sustainable development, from which all people in Ghana can profit. I am sure that Ghana will use this opportunity.

    The Minister Niebel and Dr. Oteng-Adjei had the same opinion that a part of the revenue needs to be invested in sustainble energy to reach a more clima gentle and stronger tecnology-based economic growth. "German companies are on the top of the peak concerning renewable energy. Democratic structures and improved economics condicions offer a stable surrounding for Ghana. Here is a great potencial for further cooperation."

    Ghana is one of the most important countries for German development cooperation. In the last 3 years there has been discoverd gas and oil reserves in Ghana along the coast. In 2011 the first revenues will flow out of the oil delivery in the national budget.
    Germany supports the transperent utility of the program to get Ghana on a good way.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Oil catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico

    After the explosion and the sinking of the oil platform “Deepwater Horizon” an ecologic disaster is set. Beside the death of 11 crew members of the platform, BP will also have to face material losses. The President of the United States already made a public statement in which he blames the oil giant to be culpable of the oil lack in the Gulf of Mexico, which now daily spits over 800.000 liter a day into the Atlantic Ocean. He assures BP to “pay the bill”

    But the “bill” can only refer to legal and capital losses due to the oil. Many aspects, which can’t be overseen right now, will influence human life in the northern American region . And by this, the perspective of the ecological system is still not included. Anyway Greenpeace Mexico warns for a 20 year court fight until people and nature comes to its legal rights.

    As the “Deepwater Horizon” was presented as the modernist oil platform available, again the powerlessness of humankind in face of nature becomes obvious. The continuing dependency of the economy on oil and its everyday harder acceptable appearance also brings the question how often these kind of catastrophes is about to happen in future.

    LINKS

    http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/o/oil_spills/gulf_of_mexico_2010/index.html

    http://www.eleconomista.es/internacional/noticias/2108845/05/10/US-pressures-BP-over-oil-spill-as-Obama-visits-Gulf.html

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Amenaza de una ofensiva en Afganistán

    Tan sólo unos días después de la visita del presidente Karzai a EEUU en busca de la ayuda de Obama para conseguir un plan de reconciliación nacional y negociar con los talibán y tras la operación militar llevada a cabo por las tropas aliadas en el sur de Afganistán contra los insurgentes Talibanes, se ha producido la amenaza de una campaña militar ofensiva contra las tropas aliadas, EEUU, OTAN, y todo aquel que colabore con estos.

    Según el consejo del Emirato Islámico de Afganistán , nombre adoptado por el anterior gobierno talibán, la amenaza de una ofensiva incluye ataques suicidas, artefactos explosivos asi como minas. Se hace una llamada de atención tanto a los militares afganos como a todo el pueblo para revelarse contra las tropas invasoras. Consideran la yihad, o guerra santa como única medida posible para lograr el retiro de las tropas extranjeras.

    En contestación a esto, el ministro afgano de defensa califica estas amenazas de propaganda insurgente, y asegura que los talibanes no tienen capacidad suficiente para llevar a cabo sus amenazas.

    A esto incluye datos obtenidos del servicio de inteligencia por los que se sabe que todos los cabecillas antigubernamentales se encuentran fuera de las fronteras del país, por lo que no hay “nada que temer”.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • England- election 2010

    After counting you could see that Tories are the strongest party.

    The battle for the power in Great Britain started. The oppositional conservatives were the strongest party after the night of election. But after the whole counting in every community they did not get the complete majority. Labour want to have the power, although the result of election of prime minister Gordon Brown was the worst in the last years. The liberal democrats got an unaccepted result after thinking the opposite.

    The chief of the party of Tories, David Cameron, said in that night, the people had chosen another party. Brown explained that his part will be to make the party stronger stabile. No party has the complete majority, so the first time after 1974 there will be a coalition or minority government. An important role plays the chief of the liberal democratic Nick Clegg. Labour depends on Nick Clegg.

    http://www.bz-berlin.de/aktuell/welt/england-wahlen-machtpoker-eroeffnet-article833311.html

    http://www.blick.ch/news/ausland/kein-absolutes-mehr-146326

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Gordon Brown´s resignation

    After the election in which neither party won, Gordon Brown has announced his decision to step down as prime minister and Labour leader, effective September. "I have no desire to stay in my position longer than is needed," he said in his resignation speech. "The reason that we have a hung parliament is that no single party and no single leader was able to win the full support of the country. As leader of my party, I must accept that that is a judgment on me. This decision is not a surprise. The pressure that came on Brown got higher and higher after the elections in Great Britain. Not only the party members wanted him to go even the media made a lot of pressure. He could not stand it.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8672859.stm

    http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/05/gordon_brown_resigns.html

    http://newsbizarre.com/2009/06/gordon-brown-resigns-british-pm-to-quit.html

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Floods affecting Southern China

    After the recent drought last month, affecting more than 60 millions person, the heavy rains of the last week caused by the meteorological phenomenon “El Niño” is provoking a lot of damages in 13 southern provinces of China.

    Trees or bridges cut the roads, electricity is off, houses are down. More than 10 millions of people are affected by the phenomenon.



    The local authorities and the Government are on alert in order to provide first help quickly. The hard conditions limit the actions. The floods already killed 70 people and more than 145,000 will have to move from their homes.

    Due to the hard rains, the river Yangtsé overflows and threats the water reserve. China lack drinkable water and stocks it in 80 000 reservoirs, 1/3 could be damaged by the current events.

    According to the Chinese Government, 2010 will be a intensive year in terms of natural disasters.

    http://french.china.org.cn/china/txt/2010-05/07/content_19991117.htm

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2010/05/11/97001-20100511FILWWW00324-des-inondations-font-70-morts-en-chine.php

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • La Unión Europea estudia nuevas medidas contra la piratería.

    Los ministros de Exteriores de los países que conforman la Unión Europea analizarán esta semana cómo mejorar las armas legales en la lucha contra la piratería, en especial cómo actuar frente a los sospechosos capturados en alta mar y qué hacer con los detenidos en el marco de la Operación 'Atalanta', basada en la lucha contra la piratería en las costas de Somalia y, en concreto, analizar las gestiones que se están realizando con los países vecinos para que sean juzgados en dicha región.
    Embarcación de supuestos piratas. El Pais.
    La jefa de la diplomacia comunitaria, Catherine Ashton, viajará próximamente a varios de esos países africanos con el fin de tratar de cerrar con ellos acuerdos para que acojan y juzguen a los presuntos criminales que capturan las fuerzas navales europeas. El bloque europeo ha finalizado con Kenia y Seychelles acuerdos para que los piratas sean sometidos a juicio allí y la idea de los 27 es firmar convenios similares con Mauricio, Uganda, Sudáfrica, Mozambique y Tanzania. La Unión Europea se decanta por mantener un enfoque regional y apoyar a los Estados africanos en sus esfuerzos por detener y llevar ante la justicia a los sospechosos de piratería.
    En abril pasado, Kenia dijo que no juzgará a más piratas somalís entregados por armadas extranjeras, al no haber recibido las ayudas prometidas por la comunidad internacional por realizar esta labor. Este colapso en el sistema judicial keniano hace necesario ampliar a otros países los acuerdos, con la perspectiva de que, a medio plazo, pueda instalarse un tribunal regional que asuma los procesos judiciales de manera estable. El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores keniano, Moses Wetangula, dijo a los periodistas que la comunidad internacional no ha cumplido su promesa de ayudar a Kenia por "la carga de procesar y encarcelar a los piratas". La situación se antoja difícil en esta área y las medidas acordadas estos días por la Unión Europea pueden dejar paso a un mejor juzgamiento de los piratas apresados por fuerzas extranjeras

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • European new horizonts

    Political Dynamics in Turkey

    Turkey was officially recognized as an EU candidate in December 1999, and in December 2002 the European Council announced that if Turkey met its political ‘Copenhagen’ criteria by the end of 2004 it would open negotiations without delay. Since 1999, and particularly since the election of the AKP government in November 2002, there has been radical and rapid political reform in Turkey. Major political reforms have promoted democratisation, and led to considerable steps forward in the area of human rights including minority rights and in the area of civilian control of the military. The EU goal has been a very important framework in underpinning these reforms and uniting disparate groups around reform.

    Turkey in the EU - Economic Impacts

    Turkey is a large country in population terms and a small one in economic terms. If Turkey joins the Union in 2015 it will have a population of 82.1 million, slightly smaller than that of Germany at 82.4 million, both accounting for just over 14% of EU28 population. By 2025 at 87 million people, Turkey will be the largest EU member state and account for 15.5% of the population. Looking forward to 2050, population is predicted to stabilise at 97 million – 17.7% of EU28 million (slightly less than Germany’s 18.1% share today of the EU25 population

    Today Turkey’s economy is just 1.9% of EU25 GDP. Assuming average annual growth of 5%, it would be 2.9% of GDP on accession in 2015. Turkey’s GDP per head (at purchasing power parity) is only 27% of the EU average. Turkey’s economy is also characterised by major regional inequality. Turkey’s macroeconomic situation is stabilising after the 2001 crisis – opening of negotiations is expected to impact strongly and positively on the sustainability of this recovery. But many further economic reforms are necessary. Labour market – and education – reforms are vital if Turkey is to use its economic potential. Bothyouth unemployment and the exceptionally low employment rate of women at 25.5% need tobe tackled.

    Given its small size, Turkish accession will have minimal impact on the EU economy. It mighthave a very small but positive impact on EU25 GDP of 0.1-0.3% of GDP, an impact whichwill increase if there are net migration flows from Turkey to the current EU members. TheEU could benefit in particular from the different demographic profile of Turkey, with its much younger, growing population. If migration flows from Turkey are similar to those anticipated from the new EU member states from central and eastern Europe, then flows of around 225,000 a year would be anticipated, with a long run eventual stock of about 2.9 million migrants. This would be at a time when the EU is beginning to feel the negative impacts of its aging demographic profile.

    Foreign direct investment in Turkey is exceptionally low. The prospect of EU membership together with increased political and economic stability at macro-level, and major reform of barriers at micro-economic level – including tackling corruption and problems in the judiciary – could results in FDI flows of €2-4 billion a year.

    As a large poor country, Turkey will be eligible for significant budget transfers from the Union – though these will depend both on policy reforms in regional and agricultural policies in the EU in the next ten years, and on the actual negotiations. Both the EU’s common agricultural policy, and agriculture in Turkey will need further reform. Likely budget flows in the first 3 years of Turkish membership are estimated at a total of €45.5 billion ie around €15 billion a year. Turkey’s own contributions to the budget will mean the net figure could be €30-35 billion (and negotiations may reduce this further). In per capita terms, this is almost identical to the budget deal for the ten new member states.

    Turkey in the EU – Political Impacts

    The fact that Turkey will become the EU’s largest member state in population terms soon accession is one of the biggest impacts of Turkish accession. Turkey’s strategic geographical location, and its large Muslim population also have implications for the EU. It is in the EU’s strategic interests that Turkey is democratic, stable and prosperous and a friendly ally. Turkish EU membership can – as with earlier enlargements – contribute to these strategic goals. The impact of Turkish accession – and of opening accession negotiations – in demonstrating that the EU is a secular, multicultural body not a ‘Christian club’ – will also have important geopolitical ramifications.

    Institutionally, Turkey will have a large impact on the Council and the European Parliament but not on the European Commission. Assuming a double majority system of voting operates in the Council (of countries and population), in an EU of 28 both Turkey and Germany will have around 14.5% of the vote each. They will be strong players but unable to block proposals even together but they will be able to block proposals with a third large country. The large countries are not in a position to push through proposals on their own due to the need for a majority of countries as well as population.

    The largest 5 countries in an EU of 28 will account for 60.3% of the vote by population. This is only 3.4 percentage points higher than the share of the ‘big 4’ countries in an EU of 25 (where they have 56.9% of the vote). So Turkey will be an important powerful player and will add to the already complex set of alliances and blocking combinations that are possible. But in an EU of 28, despite its size, it does not add strongly to the dominance of the larger countries (assuming in any event that the large countries could and would agree). In terms of seats in the European Parliament, if seats are reallocated proportionately to take account of Turkish, as well as Bulgarian and Romanian accession, then Turkey – and Germany – would both have 82 seats – 11.2 % each of the total number. Turkey will have an important impact on EU foreign policy interests given its borders with the Middle East, Caucasus and the Black Sea. This will shift the Union’s borders to the South- East and increase the Union’s range of interests in these difficult regions. Turkey will look to be a significant player in the development of EU foreign policy but it will not be as important a ‘bridge’ to the Middle East as some expect. Turkey will impact more widely on the already complex political dynamics among member states, including among the larger member states, but Turkey alone will not determine the future political evolution of the Union. And many issues around whether the enlarged Union can find strategic leadership and direction, and whether it will aim for further political integration, will become clear in the next decade before Turkey joins.

    There is a risk that Turkey as a member state could resemble the UK and be a rather awkward player – but it is more likely than the UK to understand the political nature of the Union. It will also resemble in some ways the new member states of central and eastern Europe in some of its policy interests, and in other ways will have much in common with Mediterranean member states like Greece, Spain and Portugal.

    Overall, the paper concludes that Turkey will have significant impacts on the Union but these impacts can be managed as those of previous enlargements have been. Consequently,Turkey’s candidacy should be judged on the same terms as that of other candidates.

    In the case of the accession of Croatia, negotiations of Zagreb with the European Union are one of the most important aims of the external policies of Croatia. On the 21. February in 2003 they brought forward the motion to get a full member of the European Union. On the 18. June in 2004 they got an official pre accession country of the European Union. The entry negotiations, while originally set for March 2005, began in October that year together with the screening process. The accession process of Croatia was derailed several times due to the Irish rejection of the Treaty of Lisbon in a referendum, and then later by the insistence of Slovenia that the two countries' border issues are dealt with prior to Croatia's accession into the EU. Despite the logistical problems, the accession of Croatia is strongly supported by current EU member states.

    To get a full member of the European Union the EU has got 34 different so called chapters that all have to be successful finished. There Croatia 5 chapters not finished at all and other six are still in progress.

    Originally, Croatia had been aiming for a 2007 accession date -such an accomplishment would have broken Slovakia's record of 2.5 years of negotiations to complete the process. It has been remarked that the EU does expect a similar speed from Croatia.

    On 25 April 2007, the European Parliament congratulated Croatia for making "rapid progress" towards membership, but stated that "it must make further efforts in areas such as cooperation with the ICTY reform of the judiciary and the transition to a market economy".Leaders and Members of the European Parliament also stressed the need for a new institutional framework (fulfilled by the Treaty of Lisbon) for the EU by 2008 in order to accommodate Croatia, although it would be the next country to join with Lisbon in force.

    On 5 November 2008, the European Commission's annual progress report on Croatia's candidacy was published. Rehn stated that the country should c omplete accession negotiations by the end of 2009, with membership following by 2011 at the latest. In 2009 it was reported that Iceland may be fast-tracked into the European Union. Rehn said that "the EU prefers two countries joining at the same time rather than individually. If Iceland applies shortly and the negotiations are rapid, Croatia and Iceland could join the EU in parallel," probably in 2011. The last non-aquis hurdle to membership, the maritime border dispute with Slovenia, was overcome in November 2009. Croatia now hopes to finish negotiations in 2010.

    The future will let us know, if Croatia will pass this mission and if they really reach this aim but the situation is a good one. All other European members are pro an accession of Croatia into the European Union.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • THE NUCLEAR THREAT

    Nowadays an important issue for the international community is the proliferation of nuclear weapons and thats the main reason why several summit and treaties have been held. The Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treat y is the first example in history that shows the intention of the signing States to work towards to achieve international security the 1st of July 1968, most of the States have signed this treaty (188 States) but only five of those States are allow to have nuclear weapons which are United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia and China agrees that this five States are the permanent members of United Nations Security Council . A review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will take place in New York this May, Iran will take part in that session so that the Security Council can impose sanctions for violating the treaty. The Nuclear Security Summit was held in Washington (April 2010) in order to continue with the cooperation between 47 countries to maintain stability in relation with a possible nuclear war. In the summit one of the main matters was the situation on countries like Pakistan,Iran or North Korea even though the last two countries were not invited to attend the session. A second summit will be held in 2012 in South Korea to make sure countries are on track.

    Apart from the countries allow to have nuclear weapons there are others with suspicious of having nuclear arsenal such as: Pakistan, Israel, Iran and North Korea none of this countries are members of the NNPT expect from Iran, reason why it will be sanction by the Security Council, ensures that the aims to develop nuclear technology is for civil purposes but countries like United States or United Kingdom suspect that the real reasons are a nuclear weapons program and is considered as a threat. In the Pacific area there are different positions in relation with nuclear weapons. North Korea is the country which creates uncertainty, it used to be member of the NNPT but drop out of it in 2003, is not only isolated because of the nuclear issue but also because of not joining United Nations and not respecting human rights. Due to the ignorance of the real situation in North Korea that creates a tense atmosphere in the surrounding countries. China, Japan, USA, Russia and South Korea had been trying to reach a six band agreement so that North Korea stops or reduces producing nuclear weapons but they couldn’t be possible because North Korean does not want to relive the only trick that they have left, is the only way they can still negotiate with the surrounding countries for economic help and energetic support. In 2005 they confirm the existence of nuclear weapons but the lack of nuclear test questioned the affirmation so they did make a nuclear test to confirm their nuclear status, in 2009 North Korea launched a missile against Japan creating opposition in Japan in the USA and with South Korea. They could make possible a future sanction against North Korea by Security Council. In this area the rest of the countries does not have nuclear weapons but they have a determinate position about the matter; Australia is moving toward the ratification of the International Convention on Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism or Japan is launching an integrated regional support center contributing new resources to the International Atomic Energy Agency's Nuclear Security Fund hosting and funding a World Institute of Nuclear Security best practices conference, New Zealand also joints this agency. Philippines is joining the Global Initiative to combat nuclear terrorism, and Vietnam which is converting a highly enriched uranium research reactor and joins theGlobal Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism.

    One of the main problems of having nuclear weapons in countries with an unstable political situation, where these nuclear weapons can be stolen and used by terrorist groups. The states attending The Nuclear Security Summit support the objectives of international nuclear security instruments, such as the Convention of the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. Both conferences are calling on all states concerned with this threat to international peace and security, to make a commitment to follow its principles. They also reaffirm the essential role of IAEA in the international nuclear security framework and will work to ensure that it continues having the appropriate structure, resources andexpertise needed to carry out the nuclear security activities according with its Statute.
    To avoid the possible problems in relation with nuclear terrorism the best solution is to keep terrorists and criminals from getting nuclear weapons, as well as knowing how to make and use them.

    It is still not clear how the North Korean atomic crisis will end but it is for sure that it is one of the greatest if not the greatest challenge of the decade. And the most alarming fact that the world is slowly running out of time as the impotence of solving the N-Korean problem apparently created a precedent for other dangerous and instable to how to keep in check the rest of the world. It is one of the meanest aftermath of the crisis as the technical challenge of creating nuclear bomb has significantly diminished over the decades and even one of the most poorest nations might be able to develop it theoretically. Other important and urging factor of instability are the recent news about the deteriorating health condition of Kim Jong-il. The “beloved leader” ‘s death would create disturbing situation as it is virtually unpredictable who or what group would take the control in the country after the vacuum of power. So, the transmission of power might result to the end of the relatively stable status quo and lead to open conflict which obviously would be a terrible outcome for all the world. In any case the North Korean phenomena clearly signs that the nuclear weapons were not the burdens of the cold ward but remained to be a threat for the following generations of the XXI. century who have to live under the frightful shadow of Hiroshima and Nagasaki too.

    Sandra,Iria,Stefan and Gregorio

    LINKS:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/world/14summit.html

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/13/nuclear-security-summit-w_n_536250.html

    http://fpc.state.gov/c35775.htm

    http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Obama/aisla/Iran/cumbre/nuclear/elpepuint/20100412 elpepuint_7/Tes

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • Nuevos horizontes europeos: Turquía y Croacia

    Desde su surgimiento en 1951 (CECA), formada por 6 estados, la Unión Europea ha idotur incorporando nuevos miembros, hasta llegar a los 27 que son hoy en día. Son además candidatos a ingresar en la misma Turquía y Croacia; cada uno con sus particularidades.

    Turquía, había manifestado su deseo de formar parte de la UE en 1963 con el Acuerdo de Ankara, el cual establecía la libre circulación de trabajadores (no se ha podido hacer efectivo).

    El primer ministro turco Recep Tayyip Erdogan, impulsó reformas con el fin de aproximar a Turquía al cumplimiento de los parámetros establecidos por la UE para ser acogido como miembro. Entre dichas reformas encontramos, la abolición de la pena de muerte, así como los progresos en el respeto de los derechos de la población kurda del país. Estas y otras reformas sirvieron para que la Comisión Europea diera el visto bueno a Turquía y recomendase al Consejo iniciar las negociaciones para su ingreso en la UE.

    El 29 de octubre de ese mismo año, el presidente turco Erdogan firma en representación de su país, el tratado por el cual se establece una constitución europea.

    En 2005 se inician las negociaciones, sin embargo, Turquía debía aun resolver asuntos pendientes como admitir su culpabilidad en el genocidio armenio o resolver sus problemas con Grecia, así como llegar a un acuerdo con Chipre.

    Además a esta adhesión se oponían figuras como la canciller alemana Ángela Merkel o el presidente francés Nicolás Sarkozy, entre otros. Siendo una importante causa el descontento que producía el aumento de la población musulmana de la UE en un 15% respecto a la población total. Además se considera un lastre desde el punto de vista económico.

    A pesar de estas oposiciones, algunos países de la UE como España o Suecia apoyan a Turquía, con el pretexto de evitar la influencia del integrismo islámico en la población musulmana turca.

    Otro punto a favor es el hecho de que Turquía, a pesar de ser un país musulmán, ha desarrollado una política orientada a un acercamiento político y cultural con occidente. De este modo, tras la caída del imperio otomano, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk introdujo medidas que cambiaron algunos aspectos sociales; de este modo, se reemplaza el alfabeto árabe por el latino, se introdujo un nuevo código civil inspirado en el suizo, se introdujeron reformas en las leyes de género (derecho a voto de la mujer), se proclamó el domingo como día de descanso, se abolió la poligamia y se sustituyó el calendario musulmán por el gregoriano, entre otras. Además cabe destacar el hecho de que Turquía es miembro de la OTAN.

    Desde un punto de vista geográfico, existe cierta ambigüedad en la localización de Turquía, ya que, a pesar de que la mayor parte de su territorio se halla en Asia, existe una pequeña parte emplazada en el continente europeo.

    Otra firme opción para ampliar la actual UE, es Croacia, la cual comenzó el trámite de acceso y las reformas posteriormente a Turquía.

    Adentrándonos en la historia “pro-UE”, Zagreb presenta su petición de ingreso a la Unión Europea en 2003, siendo recomendada por la Comisión Europea como candidato oficial a principios de 2004.

    Las negociaciones de entrada, habiendo sido originalmente citadas para marzo de 2005, no comenzaron hasta octubre de ese mismo año, poniendo en marcha a su vez el proceso de investigación.

    Se esperaba que Croacia se adhiriera en el año 2001, pero surgieron algunas dudas tras el rechazo de Irlanda al Tratado de Lisboa en un referéndum. Pero tras la ratificación de éste, el temor desapareció, constando Zagreb como miembro no más tarde de 2012.

    Después de Eslovenia, Croacia es la apuesta segura tras la disolución de Yugoslavia, esperando pasar de ser la segunda ex – república yugoslava, a ser miembro de la UE.

    Mientras que comparando, económicamente, Croacia con otro países miembros como Polonia, Bulgaria o Rumanía, se encuentra por delante de estos en lo al PIB per cápita se refiere. Además de estar apoyada sobre una economía de mercado estable.

    El intento de adhesión ha sido posible gracias a la consolidación de las instituciones del país, reforma electoral, incrementos de los fondos para la Corte Constitucional y el Defensor del Pueblo, y mejoras en los derechos de las minorías y el retorno e integración de refugiados.

    Aunque a este país, tiene algunos puntos pendientes como los referentes a desacuerdos fronterizos o problemas con propiedades de tierra: una vez más aparece Eslovenia, que podría ser un problema debido al conflicto antiguo de fronteras con Croacia, aunque las buenas relaciones mercantiles entre los países descartan la falta de apoyo eslovena.

    Otro tema un tanto sensible para Croacia, es la libre adquisición de fincas reales por los extranjeros, especialmente italianos (Istria). Aunque existen fuertes vínculos culturales e históricos con Italia, los acontecimientos de la Segunda Guerra Mundial guardan más relación con temas actuales.

    El descontento manifestado por algunos políticos italianos en lo que se refiere a la imposibilidad de los italianos de poder adquirir terrenos en territorio croata, es respondido por el gobierno en cuestión con un acuerdo que garantiza la compra de terreno por ambas partes. Cuyas medidas ya fueron utilizadas por otros países miembros de la UE antes de su acceso.

    Con respecto al futuro de la UE un informe de la Comisión Europea de octubre de 2009 valoró positivamente a Croacia para una futura ampliación, que aunque aún tiene algunos asuntos, como el tema de Eslovenia, goza de una buena situación económica y de una economía de mercado estable, así como unos rasgos culturales que se asemejan más a los de occidente; pero la Comisión instó a retrasar el proceso con Turquía, cuya entrada por el momento continua siendo una incógnita, y aun ha de salvar muchas diferencias socioculturales así como resolver diversos problemas.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • The continuous rising of China

    "When China awakes, the world will tremble" the prophecy done by Napoleon in the XIX century has became in reality nowadays. Taken out of its torpor, the Asian giant sow confusion in the world, especially since its integration into the WTO in January 2002. A year later it enters the select club of nations capable of sending men into space.

    However, not everything is growth and prosperity in the Asian giant. China, as we are going to comment afterwards, is supporting nuclear threaties, mainly the nuclear programmes of the Islamic republic of Iran and North Korea, and it has big problems related with freedom and respect to human rights, ever more among the country people.

    How can such a development and a fast growing economy could take place while 30 years ago, Mao starved his people. China has experienced between 1959 and 1962 the greatest famines in The World History.

    DienXaoping did not want to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor and brought China into a new era, the socialist market economy. It opens the world economically but Beijing remains controlling the policy, the trade and the army.

    China’s strength is abundance in labour in addition to be very cheap. Moreover its currency is weak and the advantageous exchange rate, the industry exploded, especially the textile and manufactured goods cheap. It was called China, the workshop of the world. The agriculture and services also rose. Between 1978 and 2003, the average annual growth rate of China averaged 6%.

    This economic boom has helped raise the living standards of over 700 million people, representing approximately 50% of its total population.

    This result, goal of the millennium Goal established by the UNICEF in 2000, made China becoming an indispensable actor in the fight against poverty in the world. At a seminar in November 2008 over 30 years of successful development,The British Cooperation (DFID) asked to pay more attention to China, too often sidelining the major global economic decisions. According to DFID, The international community should learn, not its business model, implemented by Vietnam, but its ability to continue growing very rapidly and in parallel to increase its participation in the overall global development.

    China is ready to become the second world power overtaking Japan, the ultimate model of success in Asia. Japan is aging; China is still young and still growing. Its GNI per capita will reach the 85,000 dollars per capita in 2040 according to Robert Fogel.

    In 2009, the same GNI per capita is only 6600 USD. This growth is insatiable. Must be able to produce more and more for the Chinese needs. The workforce is becoming more skilled. Beijing launches in recent years of large education projects. The Chinese central government is well aware. An educated person is three times more productive. Since 1998, the inscriptions at the university increase by 75% every year.

    It also requires resources and its own territory is not enough. Over the past decade, China is at the conquest of Africa. Often accused of neo-colonialism, it succeeds where the West has let go despite the resurgence in North American politics today. In November 2009 took place in Cairo on the 2nd China-Africa summit, where, for the second time, more than 40 heads of African States met. The Chinese policy of non-interference and neutrality on the African continent converted Africa as the third commercial partner of China.Through its low interest loans, its co-development, China could implement in many strategic African places. China seizes oil or gas reserves in Sudan and Libya. In exchange, China provides its veto in the UN Security Council, like it did during the vote for a resolution against Sudanese President, the Gen. Al-Bashir.

    Beside its productive capacity, we must not forget China’s capacity for consumption. With more than 1.500 million people, China is THE future market with significant potential for international companies.

    Its economy could not explain the Chinese powers by itself. China holds the first army in number in the world and since 1967 the nuclear bomb.

    In nuclear matter, China must play a determinant role in the resolution of both big crises of the current importance, which are not others that the nuclear programs of the Islamic republic of Iran and of the communist regime of North Korea.

    Iran continues with it suspicious program of enrichment of uranium, disobeying the NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty) and defying to the international community, as we can see now in the conference of revision of NPT, that is being celebrated in New York. Not even the continuous resolutions against it, so much in the shape of warnings as economic sanctions, have stopped the nuclear anxieties of the regime of the ayatollahs.

    Washington has returned to ask to Beijing for it support, indispensably because China is permanent member of the UN’s safety council, to impose a new round of economic sanctions against Ahmadineyad's regime in the frame of the summit on nuclear safety summoned recently by the president Obama. The Chinese response has returned to be a denial. But, to what does this strong support of Beijing owe to Teheran?

    Officially, China thinks that a new round of hard sanctions against Iran is not fundamental to solve the conflict, and pleads for a solution where predominates the diplomatic negotiation.

    Indeed, by means of this unconditional support to the Iranian fundamentalism, China tries to strengthen its multimillionaire oil contracts with the Islamic Republic as well as to improve notably it image in Middle East in order to expand it increasing influence at this vital geostrategic area, characterized, certainly, for it great anti-Americanism.

    Unlike Iran, North Korea is already a member of the list of countries with nuclear capacity, with two detonations realized up to today, which supposes a great threat at regional level, especially for its South Korean neighbours and Japan, besides a potential danger for the national North American security.

    Washington thinks that the key of the radical attitude of the Stalinist diet of Pyongyang is in the economic Chinese protection, for what the intervention of Beijing to rescue the table of negotiation to six bands, where also South Korea, Japan and Russia are, takes a fancy indispensably.

    China, for it part, is unwilling to reactivate the negotiations because she thinks that North Korea is fundamental in her geopolitical ascension in the Pacific, as well as it forms a response against the North American support to the neighbour Taiwan.

    Both crises reveal the tension climbing between USA and the emergent China. The definition of the new Chinese status in the frame of the international relations must be an absolute priority of Barack Obama's foreign policy. Otherwise, a new version of the cold war might appear in the horizon.

    China’s growing economy or military powers is counterbalanced by its human rights and political situation problems. China is constantly pointed out by international organizations on Tibet and Speech Freedom issues and the future of the Communism is also a big question. The increasing gap between the richest and the poorest, the endemic corruption could create a social conflict and slow the economic growth. And a transformation into democratic state would have an instable transition and a weak government.

    China needs to affirm itself as a key actor of the World. Its investment in space, the first in the World, shows how China wants to have a special place in the World’s decisions and where China’s voice is heard. If they check this errors, It seems it will be very soon.

    Nobel Prize of Economy in 1993

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • The Mexican Drug War is Becoming a Worldwide Fight.

    The Mexican drug war is the name that is given to the armed conflict between the Mexican government and the drugs cartels. However, not only Mexico is suffering from this Drug War but also all parts of North America. The US and Canadian drug market are living a shortage in supplying what created tensions in both side. This tension is mainly concentrated in the border regions between Mexico and the US. As a consequence, the US is involve in the solution of this regional conflict.

    Although violence between the cartels has long been hurting Mexico, the actions to combat drug trafficking, did not begin until December 11, 2006, when the Mexican president Felipe Calderon sent 6500 federal troops to Michoacán to curb the rising violence in that area caused by the attempt to create a new cartel.

    One of the greatest successes of the government of Felipe Calderon has been to get the United States has admitted his responsibility in this conflict. Since a long time, the President of the US have to take measures so that to fight against narcotic-trafficking worldwide. Obviously, Mexico is one of the countries which receive more aids from the International Narcotics Control (more than 400 million dollar in 2010). Moreover, different acts have been established, such as the International Narcotics Control Act.

    However, the current violence has been so important that the US’s government had to intervene directly. Recently, various attacks have been done and several American civil servants have been killed by cartels. As a preventive measure, all US American were repatriated. The problem is that nowadays, more and more people ask for a political asylum in order to cross the frontier and felling more secured in the US. Moreover, according to the Mexican government, the US government did not act like it should have. In fact, they think that the situation is also due to US citizens’ consumption and for that reasons, the US have to be more concerned about this issue (and not being present only at a financial level).

    On the other hand, the government's strategy of using the army has had detractors. Numerous civil organizations have complained that the military presence on the streets has coincided with an increase in the number of human rights violations, while the National Commission on Human Rights (NCHR) has warned about the increase of complaints received by this question: since the start of the fight more than 15,000 people have been killed, many of them civilians with no ties to the cartels. For this reason, Mexican strategy has been revised in March 2010. In order to develop the so-called “Mérida Initiative”, established during Bush’s governance and based on military assistance, American and Mexican agencies would be constantly in contact, so as to work better together. The new strategy consist in making civilian law more strict (such as screening people who want to cross the border) According to an article from The New York TimesNext year's foreign aid budget provides for civilian police training, not equipment”.

    In addition to the difficulties to resolve this issue, Mexico suffers from corruption in the government and especially in the prisons.If you ask Mexican inmates to describe prisons they would answer that it is a place where drug dealers can recruit new members and bribe their way out. This is the reason why the Mexican government is shipping many drug traffickers to the United States, where it is harder for them to continue their crimes or make contact to their criminal networks. The United States are involved in program to help fix Mexico’s broken prisons with $4 million. Specialists from United States prisons have started to train Mexican guards to clarify the ethical guidelines and methods they have to use in their daily work.

    The wealthiest inmates are able to pay to receive key for their cells. It is not uncommon to have pizza deliveries, prostitutes, drugs and alcohol inside the prison walls. Sometimes prisoners will pay to the guards to leave the prison for a while or make break out from prison. Some convicts manage to escape even before they get to prison or to court, usually with help of other cartel members or by bribing the guards.

    Mexico´s prison system is full of flaws and jail facilities are very bad quality. The most dangerous prisioners should be locked to maximum security cells but there is huge lack of space. So these inmates are taken to less secure prisons. The government is planning to build prisons to get more beds. One major goal is to divide the cartel members from other inmates to prevent them from recruiting new gang members.

    The uses of the Internet and newer technologies have also an impact in this conflict. This opens also new opportunities for headhunting or dealing in a very fast and effective way. As the number of daily murder rises in Mexico also the fight about information has become a field in which the government has to face certain issues. You Tube, Facebook, Twitter etc. are now used by the traffickers as well by governmental institutions to inform citizens and cartels or their enemies.

    Due to the strong intervention on drug traffic in Mexico and the violent response from the drug trafficking groups, the number of killed people that were related to the cartels have increased from 2,837 people connected in 2007 to 9,365 people in 2009.

    If we think in the number of civilians victims that the government strategy has produced, we have to ask if this really is the right way to secure and ease the streets of Mexico.

    Anyway, since 2008 the government has tried to attack the issue from others fronts such as social programs aimed at preventing the consumption or the increased surveillance in areas where there are large masses of children and young people because they are the largest population risk.

    Links:

    Wikipedia.org

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/infotech/view/20100425-266347/Internet-spreads-Mexico-drug-gang-fears

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-04-13-Mexico-drugs_N.htm

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-02-27-mexicodrugwar_N.htm

    http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/mexico/drug_trafficking/index.html?scp=1&sq=drug%20trafficking&st=cse
    http://www.explorandomexico.com.mx/about-mexico/9/49/

    http://justf.org/Program?program=International_Narcotics_Control_and_Law_Enforcement

    http://noticias.prodigy.msn.com/internacional/articulo-bbc.aspx?cp-documentid=23704859

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/us/18border.html?scp=3&sq=mexico%20drug%20war&st=cse

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/world/americas/11prisons.html?pagewanted=3&_r=1

    http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/mexico/drug_trafficking/index.html?scp=2&sq=Mexico%20and%20US&st=cse

    http://www.flickr.com

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • 04
    May
    2010

    Islamist against Somalia pirates

    The militant group Hizbul Islam maintains control of Haradere, the main port of Somalia. The situation is confuse, it is known that many pirates fled during the weekend and three hijacked ships have sailed Hobyo, a port 110 miles north pirate. Nothing is known about the fate of the 300 hostages.


    Citizens say the aim of Hizbul Islam is to impose sharia law and stop piracy. It's why defending the leader of the radical Islamist group, Hasan Dahir Aweys. Other sources say the militants demanded part of the business before taking Haradere. There is no confirmation that this request is true.


    Hizbul Islam has spread from Al Shabab, another radical group that the CIA links to Al Qaeda. Al Shabab expelled them from the south region. Both want to defeat the Western-backed transitional government that controls just about Mogasdicio neighborhoods and downtown areas. U.S. and its allies try to exploit the differences between the two Islamist groups in favor of central authority. Meanwhile, the shipping industry awaits news about the intentions of Hizbul Islam.

    Publicado por jmperedo

  • An Islamist group conquests the largest dock in Somalia’s pirate’s zone.

    The group Hizbul Islam Haradere now entered the main basis of the Somali pirates. Local sources report that the Islamists sent several days ago about actors who demanded a share in the business. Upon receiving a refusal, Hizbul Islam has entered the city aboard armored Humvees 14. "There are armed militiamen on the streets. Many pirates fled north in their cars", said the Somalia civilians.

    Hoybo Haradere and are the main docking ports for hijacked ships. There are currently 18 ships retained. Somali pirates were responsible for 217 attacks in 2009 and the capture of 47 ships. The deployment of warships from several countries, including Spain which has two, has reduced the figure this year. Hizbul Islam is allied with Al Shabaab, which the CIA links with Al Qaeda. Both are, in theory, anti-piracy. The Taliban were against drugs in Afghanistan and is now financed by heroin trafficking.

    Hizbul Islam leader in Hassan Dahir Awey, former number two of the Islamic Courts Union, which ruled Mogadishu in 2006 and was expelled by an Ethiopian invasion backed by United States. In front of the current transitional government, which controls only a portion of central Somalia is the former president of the IUA, the moderate Islamist Sharif Ahmed, supported by the West. Islam and Al Hizbul Shabaab, which controls southern Mogadishu and part of, they want all the power.

    Publicado por jmperedo

Sobre este blog

Avatar de jmperedo

¿Qué es un Observatorio de Actualidad?

¿Cuáles son sus funciones?

¡Da tu opinión!

Suscríbete

Selecciona el agregador que utilices para suscribirte a este blog (también puedes obtener la URL de los feeds):

Últimos comentarios

LICENCIA